Big decision from New Delhi in the aftermath of brutal Pahalgam attack, India suspends Indus Water Treaty, a treaty that has survived four wars. Decades of cross-border terrorism against India by Pakistan now faces suspension for the first time.
The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.
Let’s dive deeper and understand how this decision will impact Pakistan. But first, what is the Indus Water Treaty? The IWT was signed in Karachi on September 19, in 1960, following nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan. The treaty has 12 articles and 8 ennexures from A to H. According to the provisions of the treaty, all waters of the Eastern Rivers of the Indus system, Satlach, Bayas, and Ravi, shall be available for the unrestricted use of India. Pakistan shall receive water from the Western Rivers, that is Indus, Jhelam, and Chinam.
Now, talking about the significance of the decision to suspend this treaty, PK Saxena, former Indian Commissioner for Indus Water, told the Indian Express this, By suspending the Indus Water Treaty, India now has a greater control over how it uses the of the Indus River system. This means India can stop sharing river flow data with Pakistan. It is no longer bound by treaty rules when building or operating projects on the rivers.
India can now build water storage on the Western Rivers, as in Indus, Jhelam, and Chenab. Pakistani officials will no longer be allowed to inspect Indian hydro projects in Jambu and Kashmir, like Kishin Ganga and Rattal.
India can also carry out reservoir flushing at Kishin Ganga Dam to remove and improve its lifespan. However, this move won’t immediately affect the flow of water to Pakistan. That’s because India doesn’t yet have the infrastructure to stop or divert the water. Next big question is, can Pakistan trigger any arbitration clause under the IWT in response to India’s decision to suspend the treaty? Well, the Indus Water Treaty lacks an exit clause, meaning neither India nor Pakistan can legally abrogate it unilaterally.
The treaty has no end date and any modification requires the consent of both parties. But while the treaty cannot be exited, it does contain a dispute resolution mechanism. Article 9, along with Ineghja’s FNG, lays out procedures for raising grievances, first before the Permanent Indice Commission, then a Neutral Expert, and eventually a Forum of Arbitrators.
Pakistan is yet to issue an official response to India suspensions of the IWT. Treaty. Now, you might ask, have India and Pakistan taken any other recent actions over the Treaty? Well, the two hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir have been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan for years now, leading New Delhi to issue a notice in January 2023 to Islamabad seeking the modification of the treaty.
This is the first such notice in the more than six decades of the treaty’s existence. In September 2024, India sent another notice to Pakistan on this matter. In January this year, the neutral expert appointed by the World Bank in 2022, under the terms of the IWT, decided that he was competent to adjudicate on the differences between India and Pakistan regarding the design of two hydroelectric projects. Now, during the meetings, Pakistan submitted that the points of difference raised by India did not fall within part one of the treaty, effectively taking the issue outside the remit of the Neutral Expert.
India, on the other hand, had argued that these felt squarely and entirely within the aforementioned part of the treaty, making the neutral expert duty bound to render a decision on their merits. This is a developing story, so stay tuned with the Sabhi Khabar for all the latest updates.